Focus on the "Twelve consecutive falls" in oil prices and the "entanglement" in the trend of commodities.
focus on the "Twelve consecutive falls" in oil prices and the "entanglement" in the trend of commodities.
China Construction Machinery Information
with the middle and lower reaches of the cost support caused by the continuous decline in international oil prices, the commodity market is taking over the "baton" of decline in 2014. On January 12, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice, deciding to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel by 180 yuan and 230 yuan per ton respectively from January 13. The price of refined oil in China has experienced "Twelve consecutive falls", and the price of gasoline and diesel in many regions has entered the "five Yuan era"
crude oil is the raw material of many bulk commodities. The continuous decline of international crude oil prices will directly lead to the linkage decline of China's crude oil prices and downstream product prices, which is not conducive to China's commodity exports. In this regard, liuxintian, Secretary General of China bulk commodity development research center, believes that the international oil price oversold trend is unsustainable, and it is expected to usher in a turning point in January or February, and the specific time depends on the specific time when China launches a new round of strategic crude oil reserves
crude oil prices continue to hit new lows
in the past two years, the world economy has been significantly differentiated. At present, except for the improvement of the U.S. economy, the economic growth rate of other large economies in the world is slowing down. Although all major economies are trying to adjust the economic structure and look for new economic growth points. However, at present, the adjustment of global economic structure is still difficult, especially the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has not been completed, which has inhibited the expansion of global demand for energy and other bulk commodities. In 2014, the global commodity market was under heavy pressure, which led to the continuous decline of the market. The crude oil price fell sharply from a high of more than 100 dollars/barrel to around 50 dollars/barrel
since the second half of 2014, crude oil has led the commodity market down under the combined effect of many factors, such as the slowdown of global economic growth, the imbalance between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical conflicts and the strengthening of the US dollar. On January 12, 2015, the price of U.S. crude oil futures fell below $47/barrel, hitting a minimum of $46.71/barrel, breaking the nearly six-year low. The price of Brent crude oil futures fell to $48.39/barrel, breaking the new low since April 2009
according to the analysis, the reasons behind the continuous decline of international oil prices are: first, the shale oil production in North America has increased significantly, while OPEC countries still maintain high production capacity, but the demand growth rate has declined, and the oversupply situation tends to deteriorate. Second, the U.S. economy continued to strengthen, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates was strengthened. In addition, the two major economies in Europe and Japan fell into a deflationary pattern, and the dollar turned into a medium - and long-term upward channel, exerting negative financial pressure on the price of crude oil futures
the global economic outlook recently released by the world bank believes that the decline in international oil prices is due to factors such as the sharp increase in global oil supply and decline in demand in recent years, the disappearance of geopolitical risks in some parts of the world, major changes in the policy objectives of the organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and the appreciation of the US dollar. Although it is still unclear how much power has driven the recent sharp decline in oil prices, supply side factors have obviously played a leading role. At present, the price of crude oil in the international market continues to fall, with a decline of more than 50% of superior quality. In the coming period, the price of crude oil in the international market will continue to decline. When it reaches a critical point, such as the price of $40/barrel, it will lead to the loss of shale oil and other new energy in the United States, thereby inhibiting the increase and release of its production capacity
the commodity market generally fell
in 2014, with the global economy losing its growth momentum, there was a little son at home who was going to school. Global commodity prices have been falling steadily, and weak demand is one of the main reasons for the continuous decline of almost all commodity prices. However, the decline in the price of crude oil is considered to be the main "driving force" behind the decline in the commodity market. At this stage and in the future, the price of crude oil and other commodities is depressed and even continues to bottom
relevant people pointed out that with the continuous decline of international crude oil prices, international bulk commodities have generally plummeted and kept hitting new lows. It is necessary to be vigilant against the severe impact of the sharp decline in crude oil. From the perspective of commodities, the decline of crude oil price, on the one hand, means the decline of transportation costs and production costs, and even brings the risk of commodity cost collapse, which has an impact on the prices of bulk commodities such as coal. On the other hand, the decline in energy costs has led to the improvement of enterprise profits, which further prompted enterprises to increase output and exacerbated overcapacity
it is widely expected in the industry that the "bear market" of bulk commodities will be difficult to change fundamentally in the short term, and crude oil prices will still face huge downward risks in 2015. It is reported that Citigroup lowered its 2015 crude oil price forecast in New York from $72 to $55 per barrel, lowered its 2015 Brent crude oil price forecast from $80 to $63 per barrel, and lowered its 2016 crude oil price forecast in New York from $75 to $62 per barrel
as the fundamental negative factors such as the imbalance between supply and demand and the strong dollar have not dissipated, the prices of some bulk commodities such as international crude oil continued to weaken in early 2015. According to the analysis, the structural contradiction between supply and demand in the raw material market, the reconstruction of market price standards and the changes in the macroeconomic environment are the main drivers of the downturn in bulk commodities. With the continuous release of production capacity when the investment in bulk raw materials is at a high level, oversupply is becoming the "new normal" of most commodities
facing the heavy pressure of oversupply, global commodity multinational companies and major production areas have implemented the strategy of reducing prices and expanding production, so as to occupy market share. Because of this, although it is predicted that the oil market will be oversupplied in 2015, Saudi Arabia is not prepared to reduce its future production, but to reduce the benchmark oil price to the lowest level in nearly six years, even if the oil price falls to $20/barrel, so as to enhance its competitiveness for shale oil and gas and other new energy sources. Iran then sharply lowered the price of crude oil futures sold to Asia, and the discount reached a new high under the microscope in nearly six years
although the oversupply of crude oil cannot be reversed in the short term, the degree of oversupply is expected to shrink steadily, which will change the sharp decline mode of oil prices. Li Hong, a senior analyst at the energy branch of business agency, believes that the international oil price may stop falling in 2015, with an average price of $65/barrel. It is expected that the high point of the international oil price will appear at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, ending the continuous decline in 2014
bulk commodities are expected to hit the bottom and rebound
in fact, low oil prices have caused a comprehensive decline in bulk commodity prices, but the global economic outlook says that if there is stronger global growth support, low oil prices will bring huge benefits to oil importing countries in developing countries. It is expected that the weak trend of global oil prices will continue in 2015, and the subsequent effect is a significant transfer of real income from oil exporting countries to oil importing countries
you can still master the world economy yellow book: analysis and prediction of the world economic situation in 2015 prepared by the Institute of world economics and politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in a short time according to the video tutorial. It is said that although the recovery of the world economic growth rate in 2015 will promote the growth of global commodity demand, the commodity price index will not rise with the recovery of demand. From a long-term perspective, The pressure of crude oil price reduction is relatively large. However, with the bottoming out of China's economic growth, the relatively strong recovery of the U.S. economy, and the promotion of the balance of supply and demand by the continuous decline of commodity prices, the commodity market may usher in a mild turnaround in 2015, and the price will rebound after the oversold, such as the oil price in the international market returning to $80/barrel. However, at present, there is no factor to stop the decline of crude oil
due to the continued downward pressure on the economy, low-cost dumping by world oil majors and major production areas, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, oil prices are still difficult to be optimistic for a period of time. However, China's targeted stimulus has gradually taken effect, reform has helped economic growth, and the continuous decline in the prices of oil and other bulk commodities will eventually lead to increased demand and curb supply, and the market may rebound
Liu Xintian said that the trend of the commodity market in 2015 may be more "tangled". On the one hand, after experiencing a sharp decline in the market, some commodities gradually show the value of investment, and the "oversold" varieties have overdrawn the decline in 2015. But on the other hand, the sharp fall in international oil prices will form a new round of "coercion" on surrounding bulk commodities, including coal. However, it is believed that the deep fall in international commodity prices has not only curbed the release of production capacity, but also increased the purchasing power of money and stimulated the corresponding increase in demand. The sharp fall in the prices of global bulk commodities such as crude oil is equivalent to a new quantitative easing, which is conducive to the recovery of the global economy
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