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Focus: the demand changing tractor market has gone out of Xintiandi

focus: the demand changing tractor market has gone out of Xintiandi

China Construction machinery information

in the first quarter of this year, although there were some new changes in China's tractor market, it did not go out of the trough. On the one hand, market demand continued the downward trend of last year, with a slight decline; On the other hand, the market demand has changed significantly, the large tractor market has strengthened, and the enterprise efficiency has increased significantly. These changes indicate that China's tractor market has entered a new stage of development

why does demand fluctuate and plummet

in the first quarter, China's tractor market showed a sharp rise and fall. This phenomenon occurs among tractor categories, with the explosive growth of large tractors and the sharp decline of small tractors. The market demand sent a strong signal, calling for the era of big drag for many years. The first quarter of this year really came. Market research shows that nearly 200 large-scale production enterprises have sold 489200 tractors of various models, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99%. Although the fundamentals showed a downward trend, the performance of large, medium and small tractors was quite different. Among them, 30 large tractor manufacturers sold 15700 large tractors, an increase of 22.49% year-on-year; 54 medium-sized tractor manufacturers sold 146600 medium-sized tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 10.16%; 115 small tractor manufacturers sold 326900 small tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 16.78%

from the monthly trend of large and medium-sized drags in the first quarter, there was a decline in varying degrees year-on-year, but the decline in March was significantly narrowed. From the perspective of month on month, the growth rate is month by month, from negative growth in January to 76.89% growth rate in March, which can be described as heaven and earth

the above performance of the tractor market once again proves our previous judgment, the end of the golden period of China's tractor market and the beginning of the silver era. The difference is that the tractor market has different personality characteristics under the influence of various complex factors. Looking at the tractor market performance in the first quarter of this year, the following important factors cannot be ignored

first, the tractor market demand structure adjustment. As we all know, China's large and medium-sized tractor market has been operating at a high level for more than 10 years. In 2014, the total power of national agricultural machinery reached 1.076 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 3.57%. The ownership of large and medium-sized tractors and supporting agricultural tools is expected to reach 5.72 million and 8.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% and 8.1% respectively. The growth rate is 8 and 7 percentage points higher than that of small tractors and supporting agricultural tools. The trend of large-scale and supporting tractors is more obvious, and the demand structure of tractor market is accelerated

second, gradient updating has become the main driving force for tractors. From the market performance in the first quarter, it is not difficult for us to draw such a conclusion: in the environment of serious overcapacity in China's tractor industry, the driving force to promote the tractor market mainly comes from the internal gradient update of large tractors replacing medium tractors and medium tractors replacing small tractors. The main value of this update is to promote the upgrading of China's tractor industry

third, from the analysis of personality characteristics in the first quarter of this year, due to the small rise in the large and medium-sized tractor market in the first quarter of last year. The formation of a phased high platform has a great impact on the market in the first quarter of last December and January. This is a direct factor leading to the decline of large and medium-sized tractor market

fourth, subsoiling stimulates the rapid development of Datuo market. In recent years, the central and local governments have vigorously promoted land subsoiling operations. Especially at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of agriculture assigned subsoiling tasks to some major agricultural provinces, and gave subsidies to subsoiling machinery and agricultural tools and subsoiling operations in terms of policies, driving the rapid development of subsoiling machine market and driving the strength of large tractor market

fifth, the demand of Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives, large agricultural machinery households, family farms, planting households and other rural organizations has changed the demand structure of tractors. This year, with the deepening of land circulation, China's rural cooperative organizations have developed rapidly, changing the market demand structure of tractors. As a new demand subject of tractors, rural organizations' demand mainly refers to large tractors, which has curbed the market demand of small and medium-sized tractors

sixth, the market demand structure of large and medium-sized tractors has changed, and there is a sharp differentiation between large and medium-sized tractors. With the popularity of the Datuo market, there are two results: first, from the perspective of quantity, the large-scale growth of the demand in the Datuo market has further compressed the demand space of the Zhongtuo market and reduced the total market demand from the absolute volume; Second, perhaps from the perspective of efficiency, the working efficiency of large tractors is much higher than that of small and medium-sized tractors. The further integration of the working efficiency of tractor terminals into the flag of large tractors is also an important reason for reducing the total number of tractors

seventh, policy guidance. From the analysis of agricultural machinery subsidy policy this year, the subsidy amount of a single large tractor is much higher than that of a medium-sized tractor. For example, for a 20-25 HP four-wheel drive tractor, the national subsidy for a single set is 6900 yuan; For 80-85 horsepower four-wheel drive tractors, the subsidy amount for a single unit is as high as 29800 yuan. The huge subsidy gap has effectively promoted the upgrading of China's tractor market, and large tractors have gradually become the mainstream of market demand

medium-sized engines occupy the mainstream, and large tractors grow rapidly.

from the analysis of the sales proportion of each horsepower segment in China's large and medium-sized tractor market in the first quarter of this year, tractors with 25 ~ 80 horsepower segment still occupy the mainstream of the market, accounting for 68.25% of the total market demand; In particular, 30 ~ 39 and 40 ~ 49 HP tractors account for 19.9% and 22.7% respectively. The proportion of large tractors is concentrated in the two horsepower ranges of 90 ~ 99 and 100 ~ 129

however, from the analysis of the development trend, except for the 35.9% increase in the 60 ~ 69 horsepower section of medium-sized tractors in the first quarter, the other horsepower sections showed a decline in varying degrees. In sharp contrast, except for the decline of the horsepower segments above 80 ~ 89 and 160 horsepower, all other horsepower segments of large tractors showed varying degrees of growth, especially the 100 ~ 129 horsepower segment and 130 ~ 159 horsepower segment, with 39.8% and 138.7% substantial growth. From this, we can see that the market demand for large and medium-sized tractors in China is accelerating to the high-power segment

from the regional demand analysis of the medium-sized tractor market in the first quarter, the mainstream demand areas are still concentrated in the "Three North" regions of northeast, northwest and North China, among which Xinjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Shandong occupy a large market share

the main brand advantage highlights the prelude to the battle for large tractors

according to the monitoring of 16 major large and medium-sized tractor manufacturers in China, the competition pattern in the large and medium-sized tractor market in the first quarter of this year is still relatively stable. The cumulative sales of the top eight brands reached 93000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%, accounting for 90.7%, down 1.1 points from last year. From the performance of various brands, except for the small increase of 4.67% in the current trend, other mainstream brands have shown a decline to varying degrees. In terms of proportion, the proportion of Yituo, Foton Lovol, John Deere and Shandong Shifeng increased, while the volume effect of other brands, also known as the small size effect, declined to varying degrees

the Enlightenment of this change is: first, the market competitive advantage comes from products. The reason why Yituo, Foton Lovol, Deere and other brands can seize the market height in a weak market is the performance of their advantages of high-power tractors; Second, the focus of market competition will shift from the competition of scale in the past to the competition of high-end, large-scale and high-power market, and the battle for big trailers has begun; Third, with the shrinking market space of small and medium-sized tractors, the competition will be more intense, and the market concentration will accelerate, forming a giant of small and medium-sized tractors, and a number of small enterprises dominated by small and medium-sized tractors will be marginalized

the benefit growth is eye-catching, and the operation quality is improved.

if we analyze the benefit of tractor enterprises, the answer sheet in the first quarter is still satisfactory. Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2015, 179 large-scale tractor manufacturers achieved a cumulative main business income and profit of 15.36 billion yuan and 630 million yuan, an increase of -5.36% and 8.84% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate of main business income decreased by 15.97% compared with the same period last year; In contrast, profit growth increased by 14.64%. Total assets, liabilities, accounts receivable, current assets and value-added tax payable all declined to varying degrees. This phenomenon reflects two basic facts: first, with the decline of small and medium-sized tractor market and the rapid growth of large tractor market, the profit space of enterprises is expanding rapidly; Second, under the new normal, enterprises face more market variables. In order to avoid risks, enterprises operate more cautiously, and the sharp decline in accounts receivable and liabilities is a reflection of this operating mentality

the export volume of tractors fell together, and the import volume fell up

in the first quarter, the export volume and volume of tractors in China fell together. Customs statistics showed that by the end of March, 26117 tractors of various kinds had been exported, with an export volume of US $83.8124 million, a year-on-year decrease of 23.89% and 7.69% respectively. From the analysis of wheeled and walking tractors, the decline of export volume is far greater than the export volume, indicating that China's tractor export structure is undergoing a sharp adjustment, and the trend of large-scale export products is very prominent

there are many reasons for the decline in exports in the first quarter of this year. One of the important reasons is that the main export destination countries such as Russia, Ukraine, table 3. The trademark and corresponding performance of thin-walled materials of Goldilocks technology have declined significantly year-on-year in Australia, especially Niger, which ranked sixth in terms of export quota last year (with an export volume of 164 sets and an export volume of US $23.013 billion), has not achieved export this year. Although the number of countries exporting this year is basically the same as last year, the export share of new exporting countries is small, which pulled down the export of the whole tractor market in the first quarter

in the first quarter, China imported 569 tractors, with an import volume of US $25.3936 million, an increase of -17.77% and 41.4% respectively year-on-year. The main reason for the decline in import volume but the sharp rise in import amount is the large-scale market demand in China

it is worth expecting the market to rise slightly in the future.

the tractor market is facing positive factors in the second quarter: first, the second quarter is the traditional peak demand season of the tractor market, and the market demand momentum may be released; Second, the large tractor market will still be the main force driving the market. The basic trend of tractor demand is influenced by multiple factors, such as deep scarification of land, straw returning to the field, agricultural machinery subsidies, and these factors are all good for large tractors; Third, the medium-sized tractor market may rebound to a certain extent, because the renewal of the huge small tractor market may promote the market; Fourth, the full spread of agricultural machinery subsidies may become the main driving force to promote market growth; Fifth, the "depression" formed by the sharp decline of the tractor market in the same period last year has provided support for this year's growth

based on the above analysis, it is expected that the large and medium-sized tractor market will increase in the second quarter of 2015 and decline slightly in the third quarter

China's small tractor market has entered a demand platform period. The market is mainly affected by cyclical demand, and the market power mainly comes from renewal. After a sharp decline in 2014 and the first quarter of this year, the second quarter may usher in a turnaround, and the market decline will narrow, or even increase slightly

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