The hottest focus is on iron ore supply exceeding

2022-10-23
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Focus: it is inevitable that the supply of iron ore will exceed the demand in 2015

focus: it is inevitable that the supply of iron ore will exceed the demand in 2015

China Construction machinery information

at the recent annual meeting of my steel, Zhang Lei, vice president of Morgan Stanley China Metals and mining, predicted that the growth rate of iron ore in 2015 will definitely exceed that of steel

at present, traders are relatively cautious and unwilling to overstock a large amount of inventory, so the domestic port iron ore packaging and testing industry, especially the paper products packaging and testing instruments, can also be said to usher in a good development prospect, and the inventory is also high, while the steel mills have always been at a relatively low inventory level

in 2014, low-cost mines, mainly in Australia, expanded their production capacity, completely improving the supply and demand situation of iron ore, and most of them adopted the practice of spot price, which accelerated the reduction of production of high-cost mines. Therefore, in the next few years, the domestic high-cost iron ore miners in the capital market will face large-scale losses, the capital expenditure of the whole industry will slow down significantly, and the industry mergers and acquisitions may accelerate

with the gradual withdrawal of high-cost mines, oligarchic ore suppliers face a large number of steel mills, which will become a supporting factor for higher prices. In the long run, steel production will be reduced due to the decline of overall economic growth, and the situation of iron ore surplus will exist for a long time, and the price range will be $75 ~ 80

from the perspective of mines, many iron ore enterprises that entered the market in the past 10 years have lost their competitiveness under the current cost, including low-grade mines in Hebei Province. It is estimated that about 140 million tons of production capacity will exit in 2014, equivalent to 10% of the global supply. In the case of long-term weak market prices, it will take at least 6 to 12 months to see the withdrawal of production capacity, mainly because some manufacturers have long-term contracts to perform. This is good for steel mills because they can buy better ore at the lowest price

at the same time, local governments have reduced taxes, and mining enterprises are also actively reducing costs. Based on public data, it is speculated that half of China's iron ore in the global cost line has been closed according to the current capacity, but in fact, it is far lower than this figure. Because some state-owned enterprises can continue for a longer time, after the high-frequency fatigue testing machine is equipped with the corresponding test fixture, another mining enterprise cooperating with the steel plant will also postpone the shutdown time

internationally, Rio Tinto's actual production expansion plan has not changed significantly. According to the data, Rio Tinto's production target in 2014 is 95 million tons. It is expected to produce 330 million tons in Australia in 2015 and 350 million tons in 2017. Its operating cost CFI standard is $36, including maintenance expenses. Among the 60million ~ 70million tons of increased capacity, 40million tons are the expansion of production based on the existing capacity. BHP Billiton's main production expansion project, the first phase is 35million tons, the second phase is increased by 20million tons, the total production capacity reaches 55million tons, and other minerals are increased by 20, only repeated measurement of million tons. In addition to the above-mentioned mining giants, other mines in Australia also increased by a small margin. On the whole, the total capacity of the world in 2015 is still quite large

according to the global supply of iron ore, it is expected that the global iron ore will increase by 5% in 2014. In terms of demand, there will be a growth rate of 3% in 2014. Therefore, it is inevitable that the growth rate of iron ore supply exceeded that of demand in 2014. (Yan Weiming)

link: the situation of coking coal surplus is improving

the coking coal price was relatively flat in the fourth quarter of 2014. The spot price of main coking coal was maintained at $10billion in the past, which was weak compared with $11.9 billion in September. BHP Billiton announced that it had reached its peak, and high-cost mines had been replaced by new production capacity. China is constantly reducing the import volume of coking coal. The import and export data in 2015 show that the steel output increased during the Spring Festival, and the demand for raw materials increased to a certain extent. Coking coal production reduction is indeed taking place, but the range is not large. Because the price of coking coal has fallen sharply, North American producers are disclosing production reduction plans

although the price of coking coal is expected to be significantly reduced, considering the cost and the substitution of domestic low-cost coking coal for imports, the price of coking coal may rise in the long run. According to the survey, the current rate of coking coal production reduction is relatively slow, the effect of shutdown lags behind the decline in prices, and the shutdown is not permanent

in terms of inventory, similar to iron ore, steel mills do not have a large inventory, so coking coal will maintain a relatively normal low inventory state in 2014. Although there will be oversupply in the next few years, there will be only 8million tons of oversupply in 2015, and the situation is gradually improving, but it will take a long time. It is expected that by 20, in fact, there will be some excellent material suppliers in China who will have a certain reversal in 18 years

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