The hottest focus is on overcapacity, and the coal

2022-10-24
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Focus: overcapacity continues, and the coal market encounters a cold spell again

focus: overcapacity continues, and the coal market encounters a cold spell again

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: on February 24, the quotation of 5500 kcal thermal coal per ton in the Bohai Rim region was 550~560 yuan, down 9 yuan month on month. It is reported that since its stabilization in 2014, the price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea has fallen for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 69 yuan per ton. At the same time, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, from February 6 to 15, Qin

on February 24, the quotation of 5500 kcal thermal coal per ton in the Bohai Rim region was 550-560 yuan, down 9 yuan month on month. It is reported that the price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea has fallen for six consecutive weeks since 2014, with a cumulative decline of 69 yuan per ton

at the same time, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port exceeded the port pressure warning line by 8million tons for 10 consecutive days from February 6 to 15. The analysis points out that although the Spring Festival holiday is the inherent off-season of the coal market, the fact that the coal inventory in QinGang has exceeded 8million tons has released a big cold signal. In the first half of the year, it is difficult for China to significantly improve the coal market in order to use our knowledge in mixing, design and molding processing

"three high" situation formation

at present, the "three high" situation of high coal enterprise inventory, high port coal inventory and high power plant coal inventory has been formed

Qinhuangdao coal shows that during the Spring Festival, China's downstream industrial enterprises generally shut down, and the reduction of power consumption in the real economy led to a sharp decline in the daily coal consumption of coastal power group, and the load of some power plants fell by 50%. Welcome to learn more news, and the number of days available for coal storage passively increased

from the perspective of supply, China's coal production capacity has been relatively advanced in recent years, and it is difficult to effectively digest these capacities in the case of sluggish downstream demand

in the fourth quarter of last year, the retaliatory rebound in coal prices sent the wrong signal of market recovery, causing some coal enterprises to produce at full capacity regardless of the reality that the industry is in a cold winter, resulting in a backlog of coal inventories. At the same time, imported coal, relying on its price advantage, has continued to impact the domestic coal market and exacerbated the relative excess supply of domestic coal

from the perspective of demand, since this year, many provinces across the country have experienced rare weather with high temperatures, the pressure of electricity peaking in winter has weakened, and the use of coal for electricity has decreased. The state has also reduced coal consumption to a certain extent by promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and strengthening the construction of ecological civilization

in the fourth quarter of 2013, although the coal price increased month on month, the year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue changed from increase to decrease, indicating that the market demand has not increased. Coal experts pointed out that 9. Stop sitting or standing on the conveyor belt. After the Spring Festival factor is eliminated, the port will enter the destocking stage under the requirements of supply backflow and port dredging. It is expected that the coal price will pick up by the end of March and the beginning of April. However, due to sufficient domestic coal production capacity, it is difficult for coal prices to rise continuously throughout the year

the industry model is now changing in depth

in view of the current "three highs" situation, some people believe that due to the seasonal changes in demand, the adjustment of relevant policies in the coal industry, the strengthening of energy conservation and environmental protection, and the interaction between domestic and foreign coal markets, China's coal prices are expected to show a volatile trend as a whole this year

in the short term, after the Spring Festival, thermal coal is in the off-season of supply and demand. Coupled with the centralized fulfillment of traders' import contracts in January, domestic coal demand will be further restrained, the process of destocking will continue, and the overall loose supply and demand and structural surplus situation in the coal market will not change

in the long run, the coal industry is still facing the impact of global coal overcapacity, the continuous impact of imported coal, and the centralized release of domestic coal production capacity. Jiang Zhimin, vice president of China Coal Industry Association, believes that the excessive growth of domestic coal production in 2014 will be suppressed, the development environment of the coal industry will be improved, and the growth rate of coal demand will be more rational. He is cautious and optimistic about the situation of the coal industry in 2014

another sharp fall in coal prices in February means that the advantages of coal enterprises in coal power negotiations will continue to weaken, and the operating conditions will further deteriorate. Industry insiders believe that for coal enterprises, the key to survive this round of cold market is to speed up the transformation of production and management methods and find new endogenous driving forces for sustainable growth under the conditions of resource constraints, cost constraints, capital constraints, market constraints, green constraints and so on

in fact, China's coal industry is undergoing four major changes: business model, profit model, competition model and development model. It is reported that after the listing of thermal coal futures in China, the traditional profit model of coal enterprises with sales as the core will become richer. Enterprises can realize the dual core profit model of spot sales and futures operation through basis trading and other means

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