The hottest manufacturing PMI continued to expand

Manufacturing PMI continued to expand steadily

on February 1, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing managers' index. According to the data, in January, the manufacturing PMI was 51.3%, which was slightly lower than that of the previous month by 0.1 percentage point, but remained above 51.0% for four consecutive months, and was the high point in the same period since 2012, continuing the steady expansion trend

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the growth rate of manufacturing production and market demand slowed down. The production index and the new order index were 53.1% and 52.8%, down 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month, but supply and demand still maintained stable growth. At the same time, the pace of the manufacturing industry moving towards the middle and high-end continues to accelerate. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was 55.7%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, significantly higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, and showing a trend of accelerated expansion

it is worth mentioning that the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in January were 64.5% and 54.7%, down 5.1 and 4.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and fell for the first time after rising for many consecutive months. In particular, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry have fallen sharply, falling to 59.8% and 56.1% respectively, and the momentum of rapid price rise has slowed down. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that the recent high prices of ferrous metals, coal, oil and natural gas have fallen, and the month on month decline has occurred, and the upward momentum of prices is expected to gradually ease. It is expected that the year-on-year rise in industrial prices will peak in the first quarter, and then with the decline in the purchase price of raw materials, the rise in industrial prices will slow down, which may fluctuate at a high level or fall slightly

Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, believes that the purchase price index has basically continued to rise since last year, with only a short correction. By January this year, it has remained at a high level of more than 60% for four consecutive months. However, in sharp contrast, the ex factory price index only formed a relatively obvious upward trend in the fourth quarter of last year. In January this year, it reversed, falling by more than 4 percentage points to 54.7%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the purchase price index. If this "one high and one low" situation intensifies development, it may affect the willingness of enterprises to expand production

in addition, more than 40% of enterprises still reported tight capital and insufficient market demand this month. At the same time, affected by the concentration of employees returning home during the Spring Festival holiday, the proportion of enterprises reflecting rising labor costs and insufficient supply increased. Zhao Qinghe said that reducing financing costs and expanding effective demand are still the key factors to consolidate the stability and improvement of the real economy. Chen Zhongtao also said that to maintain a stable and good macroeconomic situation in 2017, we should focus on improving the market environment and enhancing microeconomic vitality. On the one hand, we should appropriately expand total demand and increase enterprise orders; On the other hand, we should promote the supply side reform, reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprises and improve the profitability of enterprises. Only when the micro vitality is improved can there be a solid foundation for macroeconomic stability