The hottest manufacturing PMI rose to 515 in Septe

2022-10-01
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The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5% in September, and the economy is expected to rebound strongly in the third quarter

in September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 51.5%, in the expansion range for seven consecutive months. PMI in September rose by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the rise rate was the highest since April, indicating that the manufacturing industry expanded by 4 in September. Breaking judgment: after the sample was broken, the displacement measurement data was inaccurate, and the beam automatically stopped moving; Zhang's pace is accelerating. On September 30, the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI index for September

in September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 51.5%, in the expansion range for seven consecutive months. PMI in September rose 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, the highest since April, indicating that the pace of manufacturing expansion was accelerating in September

at the same time, the rebound trend of the non manufacturing business activity index was more stable, and the index recorded 55.9% in September. The stable investment policy promoted the construction industry to maintain a high profile, and the service industry gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic and steadily improved, further pushing up the non manufacturing business activity index

in August, China's consumption accelerated its recovery, with exports rebounding faster than expected, and the economy showed a trend of accelerating repair in August. In September, the PMI index showed that production and demand both improved, the demand improved more, the endogenous power of the economy increased, and the import and export index expanded for the first time in the year. On the basis of accelerating the repair in August, the economy is expected to achieve stronger expansion in September

some market institutions believe that under the background of the continuous spread of the epidemic in India and Europe, China's stable industrial chain supply chain has obvious advantages, and China's export data in September is expected to still have a strong performance. PMI has been above the boom and bust line for seven consecutive months. With the continuous improvement of demand, the economy has been close to a reasonable growth range

China's economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter. The Organization predicted that China's economic growth in the third quarter might be about 5%, and the optimistic expectation was even 6%. However, under the influence of the overseas epidemic, the industry differentiation is still obvious, and there are still unstable and uncertain factors in China's import and export

the repair of demand was accelerated, and the economic stamina was strengthened.

PMI rose in September, and manufacturing production and demand were steadily recovering

in terms of classified indicators, the production index was 54.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; The new order index was 52.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month

since March this year, China's industrial production has been the first to recover, and the recovery of demand is relatively weak. This is reflected in the PMI classification index. The production index is higher than the new order index. In September, the new order index accelerated its rise and the demand side accelerated its recovery, providing momentum for the stable recovery of manufacturing production

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that with the continuous recovery of supply and demand and the arrival of the traditional peak production season, enterprises' willingness to purchase has increased, the market activity has increased, and the production index and new order index have both rebounded

Wen Tao, a researcher at the China Logistics Information Center, pointed out that the economic order had returned to normal in September, and the resumption of work, production and school was basically completed. Coupled with the impact of holidays, the market demand accelerated in an all-round way, and led enterprises to accelerate the pace of procurement and production. In September, the new order index was 52.8%, rising for five consecutive months, hitting a new high in the year. In September, the gap between the production index and the new order index was further narrowed, and the gap between market demand and enterprise production was further narrowed, indicating that the balance of supply and demand was further strengthened

the rebound of PMI in September is expected to continue to push up the industrial growth rate in September. In August, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, close to the level of last year (5.7%)

Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang securities, said that the production index recorded 54% in September, at a high level of more than 53% for seven consecutive months. Combined with other high-frequency data, industrial production continued to grow in September. 7. The rapid recovery of industrial enterprise profits in August (double-digit rapid growth) is conducive to boosting enterprise confidence, and the growth rate of industrial added value is expected to continue to increase in the future

not only the manufacturing industry, residents' consumption is recovering steadily, but the service industry, which was greatly affected by the epidemic in the early stage, is accelerating its recovery. In September, the non manufacturing business activity index was 55.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the new order index in September was 54.0%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month

Wu Wei, a researcher at China Logistics Information Center, said that new orders for non manufacturing industries reached a new high in September, indicating that the price of raw materials for composite polyurethane adhesives has also changed significantly, and the demand side of the manufacturing industry has further changed for the better. Enterprises' perception of insufficient market demand is significantly declining, and the economic development momentum is good. Both investment and consumption demand are improving, and the new order index of the construction industry has stabilized at more than 56% for two consecutive months, with investment showing a steady and progressive trend; The consumer demand of people's livelihood in accommodation, catering and tourism related industries has maintained a trend of accelerating the recovery. The new order index is at a high level, and the momentum for consumption recovery continues to increase

exports are expected to continue strong growth in September

the biggest uncertainty of China's economy this year is external demand. From the PMI classification index in September, the import and export situation in September is expected to continue to rebound

since June, China's foreign trade import and export have continued to repair, especially the export situation is stable and good. In August, the export volume denominated in US dollars increased by 9.5% year-on-year. The export of medical supplies and computer household economic supplies, the first recovery of China's industrial chain supply chain, has also replaced the exports of some other countries, which is an important factor supporting the upward repair of China's exports. With the restoration of economic order in major economies, whether China's exports can continue to improve or not is of concern to the outside world

in September, the new export order index was 50.8% and the import index was 50.4%, both of which exceeded 50% for the first time in the year, and rebounded to the expansion range for the first time in the year

although the expectations for functions are getting higher and higher

Zhou Maohua, a financial market analyst at Everbright Bank, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the domestic PMI index is a month on month concept, while exports generally adopt year-on-year in order to reduce seasonal factors. The two cannot correspond one by one, but the trends of the two indicators are relatively consistent. From past experience, the export order index and export performance of that month are not completely consistent. It needs to be combined with the changes in overseas demand. In September, new domestic export orders and the manufacturing PMI index of major economic systems further expanded, indicating that domestic exports are still expected to improve in September

Wen Tao said that at present, the overseas epidemic is still spreading, but the economies of major countries have maintained a gradual recovery process, and the international market demand has warmed up. At the same time, China's stable foreign trade policy continued to work, effectively stabilizing the basic market of foreign trade. This month, both import and export continued the continuous improvement momentum since the second quarter, and the number of imports and exports increased significantly month on month. Judging from the continuous and rapid recovery trend of the import and export index, China's foreign trade has accelerated its improvement

Mingming, chief analyst of fixed income at CITIC Securities, said that the increase in import demand made the PMI import index rise above the boom and bust line for the first time, and new export orders rose sharply to 50.8%. The spread of the epidemic in India and Europe further consolidated China's role as a global supply center

with the stable recovery of domestic demand and the improvement of external demand, China's economy is expected to deliver a good answer in the third quarter

Li Chao said that PMI has been above the boom and bust line for seven consecutive months, demand is constantly improving, and the current economy is close to a reasonable growth range

Zhou Maohua said that in September, manufacturing and non manufacturing industries continued to be in the expansion area, and the pace of expansion accelerated, reflecting that domestic demand was expanding month by month and recovering steadily, and the economic momentum was further enhanced. Compared with the second quarter, the pace of economic expansion in the third quarter is expected to accelerate significantly

however, the impact of the epidemic on the economy remains. Zhao Qinghe said that although the overall demand of the manufacturing industry has improved, the recovery of the industry is uneven. The survey results show that the proportion of enterprises in the textile, clothing, clothing, wood processing and other manufacturing industries that reflect insufficient market demand this month is more than 50%, higher than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, and the recovery momentum is still insufficient. In addition, the global epidemic has not been fully and effectively controlled, and there are still unstable and uncertain factors in China's import and export

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