The hottest manufacturing PMI fell to the boom and

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In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to the boom and bust line and remained stable.

the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing announced on August 1 that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was 49.9% in July, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This is the first time since March that the manufacturing PMI is lower than the boom and bust line. According to experts' analysis, the current traditional manufacturing industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market demand is weak. Flooding disasters in some regions have affected enterprise production and logistics transportation

heavy rainfall has a great impact

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that there are three main reasons for the decline of manufacturing PMI: first, affected by the super strong El Nino phenomenon, heavy rainfall swept most provinces and cities, especially the flood disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which has a great impact on the production and transportation of relevant regions; Second, the growth rate of market demand has slowed down, and the expansion momentum is still insufficient; Third, some traditional industries continue to reduce production capacity and reduce production

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that the manufacturing PMI has continued to decline since March, indicating that the traditional manufacturing industry is in the process of capacity removal, gradually reducing capacity, and also reflecting weak market demand. Recently, the overall operation of manufacturing PMI is stable, and the amplitude of PMI in the past four months is within 0.1 percentage points

Zhao Qinghe said that although PMI fell slightly, some positive factors were still accumulating. First, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was 53.2%, a new high since this year, and the leading role of high-tech manufacturing industry in structural transformation was further strengthened; Second, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the shortage of funds and the rise of labor costs decreased by 0.7 and 1.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the contradiction between the difficulty of enterprise financing and the rise of labor costs has been alleviated; Third, the expected index of production and operation activities was 55.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that enterprises have increased confidence in future development

Wei Wei, an analyst at Ping An Securities, said that the fall in PMI data showed that the manufacturing industry contracted month on month, while the recent industrial high-frequency data improved, which means that the industrial added value in July is still expected to further stabilize year-on-year. In general, manufacturing PMI has been hovering around the boom and bust line since the beginning of the year, indicating that the overall weakness of industrial production has brought confidence to extruder enterprises, and policies are still needed to stabilize growth in the second half of the year

the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises continued to fall

the PMI data of manufacturing industry in July showed that according to the size of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.2%, up 0.2 from the previous month. How to control the color difference of injection molding products? Percentage points, continuously higher than the critical point; The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.9% and 46.9% respectively, down 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling for two consecutive months, which was the main factor for the fall of PMI in July

pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, said that the continued improvement of the situation of large enterprises mainly benefited from the stimulus effect brought by investment. At the same time, the rebound of PPI promoted the recovery of the upstream coal, oil and the midstream petrochemical, steel and non-ferrous industries, which was directly reflected in the prosperity of large enterprises. Private investment will continue to decline, the expansion tendency of small and medium-sized enterprises is reduced, and downstream consumption and external demand are weak, which is not conducive to the improvement of the operating conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises

it is worth noting that Caixin China general manufacturing PMI (Caixin PMI for short), which focuses on small and medium-sized enterprises, was 50.6% in July, up 2 percentage points from the previous month, and entered the expansion range for the first time since February last year. Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macro research at Monita, said that in the sub item of Caixin PMI, the output, new orders and inventory index all jumped significantly above the dry and prosperous line

after entering the second half of the year, positive fiscal policies, especially the policy of uneven distribution, have been implemented one after another, and signs of economic stabilization are emerging

chenjianheng, an analyst at CICC, believes that Caixin's PMI has rarely increased by more than 2 percentage points month on month in history. The previous large increases correspond to the stage of economic expansion, and the official PMI is not weak. However, the two deviate this time, which is more likely because the statistical samples of Caixin PMI have changed, which needs further observation

pan Xiangdong said that as the investment peak in the first quarter is getting farther and farther away, the short-term stimulus effect is decreasing month by month, the policy tone has become stable since the second quarter, the monetary environment is stable and loose, so as to avoid the formation of overly loose expectations. At the same time, the fiscal policy has a clear positioning and the strength is still reserved. It is expected that the metal material manufacturing industry in the third quarter will be mainly used for tensile testing machines, which is slightly weaker than that in the second quarter, but will not be far away from the boom and bust line

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